Will the Scottish team at last end their All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.